The political landscape in France is undergoing a seismic shift as the National Rally (RN) edges closer to a potential victory in the legislative elections. This prospect is causing significant unrest among young voters and the political establishment alike.
In the first round of elections, the RN garnered an impressive 23% of the votes from 18-24 year olds, according to a Harris Interactive study. However, the majority of young voters favored the New Popular Front (NFP). The possibility of RN's Jordan Bardella leading the country has led some students to consider relocating abroad to countries like Belgium, Canada, the Netherlands, and Tunisia.
Enzo, a 20-year-old international business student in Montpellier, exemplifies this sentiment. He is ready to move to an 'LGBT friendly' country to avoid the potential rise in homophobia under RN governance. Enzo's fears have driven him to plan his departure by next January, saving money for the move.
The political turmoil is not limited to the youth. The construction of a Republican Vote to counter lepenism is fraught with challenges. President Emmanuel Macron's camp is divided, with some ministers refusing to support the NFP due to allegations of anti-Semitism within its ranks. This disunity is allowing RN to gain ground.
Macron's efforts to activate a 'republican front' against RN have met with mixed reactions. Ministers are disillusioned, and the President's authority is waning. The Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, advocates for the withdrawal of third-place candidates to prevent RN from securing an absolute majority. However, this strategy is contentious, with some right-wing ministers opposing any alliance with La Francia Insumisa (LFI).
The dissolution of the National Assembly has further complicated the situation. Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, once a Macron ally, now criticizes the President, claiming that Macron's actions have 'killed the presidential majority.' Philippe's ambitions for the 2027 presidential elections remain intact, but he no longer feels loyalty to Macron.
The NFP, meanwhile, is still searching for a consensus candidate for the head of Government. European MP Manon Aubry has emphasized the importance of a clear project, while potential candidates like Rafael Glucksman and former President Francois Hollande remain under consideration.
Marine Le Pen, on the other hand, is preparing for governance. She has accused Macron of an 'administrative coup' and insists that RN is ready to lead. Le Pen aims to form a government comprising RN members and civil society representatives, though she herself does not wish to hold a ministerial position.
Geographically, RN's support is strong in peri-urban areas, where economic hardship and a sense of abandonment by the state have driven voters towards far-right policies. The rising cost of living and lack of essential services have fueled this shift.
As the second round of elections approaches, France faces a critical juncture. The outcome could result in a divided country, with RN potentially forcing a cohabitation with Macron or making France ungovernable. The next 24 hours of tactical voting negotiations will be crucial in determining the final result.
- The political scenario in France is highly volatile, with the potential for significant changes in governance. Young voters, disillusioned by the prospect of RN leadership, are contemplating emigration to more progressive countries.
- The Republican Vote, intended to counter the rise of lepenism, is struggling to find cohesion. Internal divisions within Macron's camp are undermining efforts to present a united front against RN.
- The dissolution of the National Assembly has exacerbated the political crisis, with former allies turning against Macron and the NFP still without a clear leader.
- Marine Le Pen's RN is poised for potential governance, capitalizing on the discontent in peri-urban areas where economic and social grievances are most pronounced.
- The upcoming second round of elections is pivotal, with the possibility of RN either forcing a cohabitation with Macron or making the country ungovernable. Tactical voting negotiations in the next 24 hours will be decisive.
