France has witnessed a dramatic shift in its political landscape following the second round of legislative elections. The National Rally (RN) had high hopes of securing an absolute majority but ended up in third place, a significant setback for Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella. The RN's ambitions were thwarted by the success of the New Popular Front (NFP), a coalition of left-wing parties, which emerged as the leading political force.
The international press has been abuzz with reactions. La Repubblica highlighted the celebrations at Place de la République in Paris, describing the atmosphere as a 'French revolution' filled with joy and surprise. El Pais focused on the 'defeat of the extreme right,' noting the strategic alliance between the left and the center that successfully blocked the RN.
The BBC commented that the 'great day of the extreme right has not yet arrived,' while Switzerland's Le Temps called the RN's failure a 'clap of thunder.' Die Zeit reported on the relief felt by many Parisians, despite clashes in several cities where police used tear gas to control the crowds.
Despite the euphoria, uncertainty looms large. The New Popular Front does not have an absolute majority, raising questions about the stability of this fragile alliance. The Washington Post and The Guardian both emphasized the potential for political paralysis, with The Guardian noting that France lacks experience with grand coalition governments.
The future of France's governance and its role within the European Union is now in question. Alexandra De Hoop Scheffer from the German Marshall Fund warned in El Pais that the absence of French leadership could paralyze progress within the EU, or worse, lead to policies that promote its disintegration.
The New Popular Front's strategy of withdrawing candidates to block the RN proved effective. According to Ifop projections for Le Figaro, the NFP is set to have between 188 and 199 deputies, while the RN will be limited to between 135 and 143 seats. The NFP's strongholds in the southwest and major cities contributed significantly to its success.
The RN, on the other hand, achieved its best results in the north, northeast, and southeast of France. Despite winning 101 seats, the party fell short of its goal of an absolute majority. The RN's failure to secure more seats highlights the effectiveness of the left's strategy to block them.
Voter turnout was notably higher this year, with participation at 67.5%, a significant increase from 2022. This increase in voter engagement reflects the high stakes and intense competition of this election.
The final composition of the National Assembly remains uncertain, with no party securing an absolute majority. The NFP is projected to have between 180 and 215 deputies, while the Macronist coalition is expected to have between 150 and 180. The RN is set to come in third with 120 to 150 seats, followed by the Republicans with 60 to 65 deputies.
The legislative elections have left France at a political crossroads. The lack of an absolute majority could lead to years of political instability and challenges in passing laws. The dissolution of the National Assembly by President Emmanuel Macron underscores the gravity of the situation and the need for a clear majority to govern effectively.
