The upcoming legislative elections in France on June 30 and July 7 are poised to bring about significant political shifts, potentially leading to an uncertain majority or even cohabitation. According to the latest Ifop-Fiducial poll, the National Rally is projected to secure 36% of the votes, translating to between 220 and 260 deputies. The 'New Popular Front' is expected to garner 29.5%, while the presidential camp lags with only 20.5% of the votes. No clear majority is evident from these projections, raising concerns about institutional instability.
In the absence of an absolute majority, President Emmanuel Macron faces the challenge of appointing a new prime minister who must be endorsed by the parliamentary majority. Traditionally, the prime minister then forms the government. However, without the requisite 289 deputies, the government could be vulnerable to motions of censure from the three main non-majority political forces, potentially leading to its downfall.
To navigate this precarious situation, Macron might consider forming a 'technical government' composed of senior civil servants and experts rather than political figures. This approach, as explained by public law lecturer Benjamin Morel, would involve appointing a consensual prime minister to lead a neutral government. This strategy aims to prevent further chaos by ensuring that political parties do not overthrow the government, promoting a sense of responsibility among the major parliamentary blocs.
A technical government in France would be unprecedented under the Fifth Republic. Historical precedents, such as the tripartite union between 1944 and 1946 and another between 1959 and 1962, were closer to national unions rather than technical governments. The Italian example of Mario Draghi, who served as Prime Minister from 2021 to 2022, illustrates the potential benefits and challenges of such a government. Draghi's tenure helped stabilize Italy's financial markets but also paved the way for Giorgia Meloni's far-right party to gain significant traction.
In France, a depoliticized technical government could facilitate the smooth handling of high-stakes events, such as the Olympic Games. However, the longevity of such a government remains uncertain. Political analyst Stéphane Rozès suggests that while a technical government might manage current affairs temporarily, it would eventually need to pursue real policies and secure budget approvals. The prospect of a technical government could also be perceived as an admission of weakness on Macron's part, potentially undermining his legitimacy and leading to calls for his resignation.
- A technical government would mark a significant departure from the usual political landscape in France, where the prime minister is typically chosen from the parliamentary majority. This approach aims to mitigate the risk of government collapse due to motions of censure.
- The concept of a technical government has been tested in Italy, where Mario Draghi's appointment as Prime Minister helped stabilize the nation's economy during a period of crisis. However, this also allowed opposition parties to gain momentum, as seen with Giorgia Meloni's rise to power.
- While a technical government could provide a temporary solution to France's political impasse, its long-term viability is questionable. It would need to navigate critical issues such as budget approvals and could face significant opposition from political parties.
