Far-Right Gains Significant Ground in European Politics
Far-right parties are projected to win a record number of seats in the European Parliament, signaling a dramatic shift in the political landscape of the European Union. An exit poll indicates that far-right groups could secure approximately 150 of the 720 seats, challenging the traditional parties in their ability to form majorities for passing legislation.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen addressed the implications of the election results in a Sunday night speech, emphasizing the need for centrist parties to collaborate in order to counteract the growing influence of extremist groups. 'The center is holding up, but it is also true that the extremes of the left and right have gained support,' she stated, urging political allies to unite against extremism.
The surge in far-right support is particularly pronounced in France, Italy, and Germany. In France, Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN) outperformed expectations, prompting French President Emmanuel Macron to dissolve the parliament and call for snap legislative elections. Initial results show RN winning 31.5% of the vote, eclipsing Macron's Renaissance Party.
Germany also saw significant gains for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which secured 16.5% of the vote, trailing just behind the leading Christian Democratic Union (CDU) with 29.5%. These results are seen as a de facto referendum on incumbent national governments, posing potential challenges for leaders like Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in upcoming national elections.
Despite their electoral success, far-right parties remain divided within the European Parliament. Groups like the Identity and Democracy (ID) and European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) have significant ideological differences, particularly on issues such as Russia, preventing a unified front. This fragmentation could limit their direct influence on European legislation.
Nonetheless, the rise of the far-right is expected to permeate the political climate across Europe. 'Failing to influence directly, the extreme right will be able to influence insidiously,' warns Sébastien Maillard of the Jacques Delors Institute. The centrist 'grand coalition' of the European People's Party (EPP), Social Democrats (S&D), and liberals within Renew Europe is projected to retain a majority, but the future direction of the EU remains uncertain.
- The European Parliament will see a new distribution of its 720 deputies, an increase from the current number. The expected rise of nationalist and radical right-wing parties marks a significant shift compared to the 2019 elections.
- Experts highlight that although the far-right has made substantial gains, their overall impact might be mitigated by their internal divisions. To form a political group in the European Parliament, at least 23 MEPs from a quarter of the member states are required.
- In France, the National Rally has secured between 29 and 31 seats, followed by the presidential majority with 14-15 seats, and Place Publique with 12-14 seats. Other notable parties include LFI with 8 seats, LR with 6 or 7, Reconquête with 5, and Les Écologues with 4 or 5.
- While the far-right's rise presents challenges, the centrist coalition led by the EPP, S&D, and liberals remains a powerful force. Ursula von der Leyen has assured that the EPP will act as a 'rampart against the extremes' ensuring stability in the face of growing polarization.
- The broader geopolitical context, including Brexit and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, has had a significant impact on voter sentiment and the political landscape in Europe. These external pressures continue to shape the priorities and strategies of European political entities.
