The 2024 European elections have seen a significant shift, both within and outside France, reflecting varied political preferences among French citizens. In Germany, too, the elections are attracting high attention with voters casting their ballots on June 9th. The results have highlighted the popularity of different political factions, with a distinct trend towards the far right in Russia and mixed outcomes elsewhere.
In France, the elections showed a marked interest in the far-right parties among French expatriates living in Russia. Jordan Bardella, representing the National Rally, secured 24.94% of the votes in Moscow, slightly lower than the 31.6% obtained in mainland France. François Asselineau, championing Frexit, garnered an impressive 18.83% in Moscow, starkly contrasting his minimal 1.02% nationwide. Similarly, Marion Maréchal's Reconquest list achieved 13.23%, and Florian Philippot, also advocating for Frexit, received 9.67%. These figures are notably higher than their respective national averages.
The preference for far-right candidates among French citizens in Russia contrasts with the broader voting trend among French expatriates globally. In 2022, nine out of eleven foreign constituencies elected members of the presidential majority to the National Assembly. For the European elections, constituencies overwhelmingly supported Valérie Hayer's list and the Socialist Party, placing Jordan Bardella in fifth position with 8.3%. However, regional preferences varied significantly, with France Insoumise topping the polls in the Middle East and Africa.
The voter turnout in these elections varies dramatically, with a notable high abstention rate. In Russia, only 51 of 223 registered voters participated in Saint Petersburg's port city, reflecting the broader 83% abstention rate among French citizens in Russia compared to 48.6% in France. Political dynamics in the region have also shifted, likely affected by the geopolitical tensions since the war in Ukraine, leading to a 25% decrease in French consular registrations, as reported by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
In Germany, the European elections on June 9th are poised to be pivotal. Polling stations are open from 8 a.m. until 6 p.m., with initial forecasts expected shortly after closing. According to recent surveys, the CDU/CSU is predicted to lead with 29.8%, followed closely by the AfD, SPD, and Greens, each hovering around 15%. Notably, the election will also gauge the impact of new parties like the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance.
Across Europe, these elections will determine the makeup of the European Parliament, where the European People's Party (EPP) is anticipated to remain the largest group. The Social Democrats, Liberals, and right-wing groups like the ECR and ID are also expected to gain substantial seats. The voter turnout in previous years suggests a continued engagement in central European countries, although regional differences persist.
- The broad support for Eurosceptic parties among French expatriates in Russia highlights a unique political landscape influenced by local geopolitical tensions. Analysts attribute the high abstention rates to the recent decreases in French populations in these areas, exacerbated by political and economic instability.
- Germany's participation in the 2024 European elections is reflective of its significant influence within the EU. As the country anticipates various outcomes, particularly related to right-wing populists, the results will be crucial in shaping future policies and positions within the EU framework.
- The diversity in voter preferences across different expatriate communities underscores the complex political inclinations of French citizens abroad. While some regions favor more traditional or moderate parties, others, particularly in conflict-prone areas, lean towards radical changes.
- Despite voter engagement challenges, the European election remains a critical event for determining the legislative direction of the EU. With nearly 400 million eligible voters across member states, the results will impact a broad range of policies from economic strategies to international relations.
