European Elections See Surge in Far-Right and Eurosceptic Forces
The recent European elections marked significant gains for far-right and ultra-nationalist parties, leading to a challenging future for the European Union (EU) and its legislative landscape. According to projected results, the European People's Party (EPP) is expected to remain the largest group with 186 seats, followed by the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) with 133 seats. However, the far-right and Eurosceptic factions, combined, hold more than 148 seats, underscoring a pivotal shift in the political dynamic.
In France, Marine Le Pen's National Rally emerged as a strong contender, nearly doubling the seats of President Emmanuel Macron's Renaissance party, prompting Macron to call for early legislative elections. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved a historic second-place finish, surpassing the Social Democrats (SPD) led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who faced one of their worst elections.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni celebrated the success of her right-wing party Fratelli d'Italia (FdI), which confirmed itself as the leading Italian party with 28.9% of the vote share in some projections. This rise has consolidated Italy’s far-right position, complementing the broader European trend.
Decline in Voter Turnout and Rising Polarization
Voter turnout across Europe hit a historic low at 49.49%, reflecting a disengaged electorate amidst rising internal and external threats against the EU. Participation rates varied significantly, with Italy recording an overall turnout of just 43.58% in Rome and slightly above 50% in Milan. The drop in voter engagement mirrors broader concerns about the future trajectory of the EU.
The election outcomes place the EPP in a difficult position, with potential choices of aligning with far-right factions or forming a coalition with weakened Social Democrats, Liberals, and Greens. The latter groups, despite losses, remain essential for any pro-European coalition aimed at countering Eurosceptic and Europhobic agendas.
German EPP leader Ursula von der Leyen, aiming for a second mandate as President of the European Commission, emphasized her commitment to blocking extremism from both ends of the political spectrum. She pointed to the coalition's priority of maintaining a pro-European, pro-Ukraine, and pro-rule of law stance.
- In Romania, the social-democratic and liberal alliance saw significant success, capturing about 54% of the vote, while the rising far-right Aur achieved 14%. Similarly, social democrats lost ground in Germany, France's far-right surged ahead, and Spain saw a neck-and-neck race between the Popular Party (PP) and the Socialists.
- Across Northern Europe, conservative and nationalist parties performed well. In Denmark, opposition Green Left outpolled the Social Democrats, and in Sweden, the Moderates and Christian Democrats gained ground while maintaining their partnership with the ultra-right Sweden Democrats.
