European Elections 2024: Union on Course for Victory in Germany
As the European elections of 2024 approach, the latest survey data presents a promising outlook for the CDU and CSU in Germany. According to a new ZDF Politbarometer Extra poll, the Union parties are leading the race, with a combined 30 percent of the vote, potentially improving on their 2019 result of 28.9 percent. This positions the CDU and CSU as the strongest contenders in the upcoming elections.
The survey also reveals a tight competition among the other major parties. The AfD, SPD, and Greens are locked in a neck-and-neck race, each polling at approximately 14 percent. In contrast, the Greens, who garnered 20.5 percent in 2019, may face significant losses this election cycle, led by figures such as Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock. On the other hand, the SPD shows a slight decline from their 15.8 percent vote share in the previous election.
New Political Movements and Voter Sentiment
Emerging parties are also making their mark. The newly established Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) can expect a solid seven percent share, positioning them well ahead of the FDP, which currently stands at four percent. The Left and Volt parties trail behind, each capturing three percent according to the survey results. Notably, 42 percent of respondents remain undecided or uncertain about their voting plans, indicating potential for shifts in voter sentiment.
Voter turnout is a crucial factor in the European elections. In the current survey, 61 percent of respondents expressed strong or very strong interest in the elections, suggesting that turnout could remain stable compared to the 2019 elections. The voting process has already commenced in the Netherlands and will continue across the 27 EU states, with Germany casting its votes on June 9th.
In France, the elections hold particular significance as they mark the last national election before Emmanuel Macron's mandate ends. The proportional voting system and the vast number of candidate lists make the European elections a pivotal moment for the political landscape. Despite fears of abstention, which remain a concern for many parties, voter participation is expected to be slightly higher than in 2019.
- The Elections Research Group emphasized that the survey values only reflect the current mood and are not a definitive forecast for the final election results. The potential error rate is around two to three percentage points.
- In France, 358 million Europeans are called to the polls to choose 720 European deputies, with 81 elected by the French. Candidates must secure more than 5 percent of the vote to be elected.
