Interest in the upcoming European elections is at an all-time high, as voters prepare to elect a new European Parliament on June 9th. According to the latest 'ZDF Political Barometer' poll, the Union (CDU/CSU) is still leading with 30 percent of the votes. However, the race for the second place is extremely tight, with the Greens, SPD, and AfD all tied at 14 percent each. The survey also notes significant losses for the Greens compared to their record result in the 2019 European elections, where they garnered 20.5 percent of the vote.
The political landscape is volatile, with 42 percent of voters still undecided about whom to vote for. This atmosphere of unpredictability further underscores the importance of mobilization efforts by parties in the lead-up to the election. Interestingly, interest in the 2024 European elections has surged, with 61 percent of those surveyed expressing a strong interest compared to just 56 percent in 2019, and a mere 38 percent in 2014.
Similarly, in Spain, the electoral landscape is being closely watched, with the Popular Party (PP) leading the polls at 33-34 percent. They are followed by the PSOE with 30 percent and Vox with 10 percent. Newcomers like 'Se Acabó la Fiesta' (SAF), led by Alvise Pérez, are also making a mark with an estimated 2-3 percent of the vote. According to seating estimates, the PP is expected to secure around 23 MEPs, with PSOE close behind at 20. These ranges reflect the typical uncertainty of polls, which have shown varied accuracy in the past.
What's really at stake in these elections is control over the European Parliament, where community laws are made and budgets are approved. Key to this will be the formation of majorities to elect the President of the European Commission. Current projections suggest that the European People's Party (EPP) will be the largest group with 170 to 180 MEPs, followed by the Social Democrats with 140, and Renew with 81. The far-right forces, including ECR and Identity and Democracy, along with the Greens and the Left, will also have notable representation.
These indicative figures are essential for contemplating future coalition agreements, which will be crucial for deciding the presidency of the European Commission. While a left-wing pact seems unlikely, a grand coalition between popular parties, social democrats, and liberals appears the most probable outcome. This coalition could potentially extend to include the Greens, mirroring the precedent set in 2019 when Ursula Von der Leyen was elected through an agreement involving three major groups.
- The Mannheim Elections Research Group conducted the 'Politbarometer Extra' survey between June 5th and 6th, 2024. Out of 1,223 randomly selected eligible voters in Germany, the survey presents a representative snapshot with an error margin of around +/- three percentage points for a share value of 40 percent, and around +/- two percentage points for a share value of 10 percent.
- In Spain, the various parties' chances can be gauged through seating simulations. The seat estimation follows a three-step methodology: beginning with an average of country-specific surveys, calculating seats using the D'Hondt method, and factoring in the uncertainty of surveys based on historical data. These simulations offer a detailed look at possible outcomes and coalition scenarios.
