European Elections 2023: Significant Shift to the Right and Implications for Putin
The recently concluded European Parliament elections have shown a substantial shift towards right-wing parties, raising significant political ramifications across Europe. With center and moderate parties still holding a majority, the increased influence of far-right parties is a concerning development. Notably, the ascent of parties such as Germany's Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) and France's National Rally highlights the shifting political landscape.
In these elections, the far-right parties collectively secured nearly a quarter of the 720 parliamentary seats, marking their highest representation to date. Despite this achievement, their success was not uniform across all EU member states. For instance, Spain's Vox and Belgium's Vlaams Belang underperformed, while Viktor Orbán's Fidesz in Hungary and Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom in the Netherlands did not meet expectations.
Impact on EU Stability and Policy
Although the pro-European center-right European People's Party (EPP) and other centrist coalitions maintained their dominance, the rise of far-right factions resulted in a fragmented political environment. Analysts, such as Nicolai von Ondarza from the Science and Politics Foundation in Berlin, have warned that the increased division could make decision-making more challenging in the European Parliament.
The ideological divides within the right-wing parties themselves further complicate the situation. Regarding Russia, there is no unified stance among these parties. While some factions like the AfD are notably pro-Russia, others like Poland's Law and Justice (PiS) oppose Russian policies. This fragmentation may limit the far-right's overall influence in terms of shaping EU foreign policy.
Domestic Consequences and Putin's Advantage
In major EU countries such as France and Germany, the success of far-right parties in the European elections has led to significant political upheaval. In France, Marine Le Pen's National Rally outperformed President Emmanuel Macron's centrist coalition, prompting him to dissolve the National Assembly and call for new elections. Similarly, in Germany, the AfD's rise to the position of the second strongest force poses challenges for Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition.
Amidst these political shifts, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be watching with interest. While far-right parties in Europe are too divided to form a cohesive pro-Russian bloc, the resultant political instability could indirectly benefit the Kremlin. Disinformation campaigns and alleged interference in the elections, although not fully substantiated, indicate a potential for undermining EU unity.
The pro-European parties, led by influential figures like European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, have acknowledged the challenges ahead and emphasized the need for stability. Von der Leyen warned of the ongoing threat from external interference and urged centrist and moderate factions to collaborate closely to counteract extremist influences.
- The results of the European elections reflect significant national developments across member states. In Austria, the Freedom Party emerged as the strongest force, achieving 25.7%, ahead of both the conservatives and the social democrats. In Poland, Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition narrowly defeated the PiS, providing a much-needed victory for pro-European forces.
- Despite underperforming in many countries, the far-right's gains cannot be ignored. Across the continent, voters expressed their frustrations over issues like immigration, economic pressures from climate policies, and geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing war in Ukraine. These concerns have been skillfully leveraged by far-right parties to gain more support.
- The new composition of the European Parliament presents both challenges and opportunities. While pro-European parties hold a slim majority, the ability to pass new legislation or advance integration efforts may now face heightened resistance. Tactical alliances between far-right and center-right factions on specific issues, like migration and climate legislation, could complicate the EU’s policy agenda in the coming years.
- Russia's apparent satisfaction with the election outcomes was palpable. Dmitry Medvedev, the former Russian president, criticized the EU's leaders and suggested it was time for them to step down. Meanwhile, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov articulated that the ongoing rise of right-wing parties could eventually challenge the current pro-European dominance.
