Following the results of the 2024 European elections, the CDU and CSU emerged as the strongest force in the EU Parliament election. This significant victory in the EU elections has brought some positivity for CDU party leader Friedrich Merz, who commented on it being a 'good day' for the Union. According to the latest Insa survey published in the Bild newspaper, Merz's popularity among the German population has seen a notable increase. He now ranks fifth among Germany's favorite politicians, an improvement from his previous week's position.
However, despite his increased popularity, Merz still trails behind some prominent figures, including his own party colleagues. Markus Söder (CSU) and Hendrik Wüst (CDU) are ahead of Merz in the popularity ranking, occupying the second and third spots, respectively. The most popular politician according to this survey is Boris Pistorius (SPD), who holds the first place. The survey also indicates that other politicians such as Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) and several traffic light coalition leaders are trailing behind these CDU figures.
The Union's strategy for the upcoming federal elections in 2025 remains undecided, particularly regarding their candidate for Chancellor. In an interview with ntv, North Rhine-Westphalia Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst mentioned that all prime ministers have the requisite government experience and capability to run for this significant position. Current trends show a close contest between Söder and Wüst for the candidacy, both surpassing Merz in this regard.
In terms of overall political party performance, the Insa survey reveals that the Union would garner 30 percent of votes if a federal election were held imminently. The survey also shows a relatively stabilised support for the traffic light coalition parties, with the SPD at 15.5 percent, the Greens at 12 percent, and the FDP at 5 percent. The AfD continues to be a significant force, sitting in second place with 16 percent, followed by the BSW at 7.5 percent.
Hermann Binkert, head of the Insa opinion research institute, noted the persistent weakness of the traffic light parties, which lag nearly twenty percentage points behind their federal election results. This scenario appears to benefit parties such as the Union, AfD, and BSW. The survey, conducted with 2008 citizens between June 7-10, 2024, has a maximum statistical error tolerance of ±2.5 percentage points.
- The outcomes of the European elections have far-reaching implications beyond Germany. In France, the results have led to political turmoil and realignments, with President Emmanuel Macron announcing the dissolution of the National Assembly. The country's far-left factions, spearheaded by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, have managed to rally various left-wing parties under a 'new popular front.' This alliance aims to present unified candidacies in the upcoming legislative elections scheduled for June 30 and July 7, a move that has sparked sharp criticisms from various political figures.
- The far-right National Rally (RN) significantly impacted the European elections, with its list led by Jordan Bardella amassing 31.37% of the votes. This performance highlights the shifting political landscape in France and sets the stage for contentious legislative elections. Heads of parties across the spectrum are preparing for a highly polarized political battle in the coming months.
