Daily Reports
Emmanuel Macron Dissolves National Assembly: A Political Gamble
In a surprising turn of events, Emmanuel Macron announced on June 9, 2024, the dissolution of the National Assembly. This bold move has set the stage for quick parliamentary elections, presenting a high-stakes gamble for Macron in his second term. The decision came as a shock, especially given the historical context of French politics, where the Constitution of the Fifth Republic is designed to manage without an absolute majority. As Benjamin Morel, a lecturer in public law at the University of Paris II Panthéon-Assas, points out, this maneuver was anything but inevitable.
Potential Consequences of Macron's Decision
The immediate consequence of dissolving the National Assembly is the necessity for swift parliamentary elections. Macron is betting on the disarray of the opposition parties, particularly the Rassemblement National (RN) and the left-wing parties, to secure a majority for his party, Renaissance. However, this dissolution means all current legislative proposals, including significant bills such as the one on the end of life, are now obsolete and need to be reintroduced if a new majority is established. The political landscape remains unpredictable, with potential shifts in voter mobilization as summer approaches.
Political Repercussions and Strategic Bets
Macron's strategy appears to hinge on the fragmentation of the left and the potential for RN's perceived mediocrity. By dissolving the Assembly, Macron aims to create a scenario where the left-wing constituencies are contested, facilitating majority/RN second rounds and potentially securing more seats for his party. Benjamin Morel highlights the inherent risks, noting that an RN majority, though not the most likely outcome, cannot be entirely dismissed. The possibility of having no majority at all, leading to a scenario where any motion of censure could pass, could usher France into a period of significant political instability.
- Sunday's announcement by Emmanuel Macron came amid the backdrop of the European elections, where the National Rally led by Jordan Bardella suffered a crushing defeat despite being the clear winner. At Renaissance HQ, activists were initially looking to stay positive about their head of list Valérie Hayer's 15.2% vote share. However, Macron's announcement left them in shock and emotional distress, with many questioning the decision's wisdom.
- The legislative elections are set to occur in less than a month, with the first round on June 30 and the second on July 7. This tight timeline adds another layer of uncertainty to an already volatile political environment.
