Geopolitical Shifts in the Horn of Africa
The Horn of Africa is currently experiencing significant geopolitical changes, particularly with Egypt's increasing involvement in Somalia. Following a military cooperation agreement signed on August 14, 2024, between Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, the two nations are poised to deepen their ties. This agreement comes at a time of heightened tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia, raising concerns about potential proxy conflicts in the region.
The African Peacekeeping Mission
In a collaborative effort, Egypt and Djibouti have proposed to participate in a new African peacekeeping force in Somalia, set to commence its mission in 2025. This initiative aims to fill the gap left by the withdrawal of existing forces and has been welcomed by the Somali government. The Egyptian military's involvement is expected to enhance security and stability in Somalia, particularly in the face of threats posed by the Al-Shabaab movement, which has been increasingly active in recent months.
The Renaissance Dam and Regional Tensions
The backdrop of this military cooperation is the ongoing conflict surrounding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Ethiopia's recent agreements with Somaliland, which include plans for a military base, have been met with strong opposition from Somalia. Experts suggest that Egypt's actions may be a strategic maneuver to counter Ethiopia's influence and secure concessions regarding Nile water rights. As both nations navigate this complex landscape, the potential for Somalia to become a battleground for their competing interests looms large.
- The military cooperation agreement between Egypt and Somalia is seen as a response to Ethiopia's assertive moves in the region, particularly its dealings with Somaliland. The agreement includes provisions for military training, intelligence sharing, and joint operations aimed at combating terrorism. Moreover, the Egyptian presence in Somalia is part of a broader strategy to strengthen its influence in the Nile Basin, where it has been actively engaging with neighboring countries to counterbalance Ethiopia's growing power. As tensions escalate, Ethiopia has signaled its intent to protect its interests, warning against any destabilizing actions in the Horn of Africa. The Ethiopian government has expressed concerns that the new African peacekeeping mission could threaten regional stability, emphasizing its commitment to maintaining security in the area. This ongoing rivalry between Egypt and Ethiopia over water rights and military presence in Somalia is likely to shape the future of the Horn of Africa.
