Trump's second term is likely to continue the trend of using trade as a leverage point against China, but significant escalation in tariffs and sanctions may be limited due to economic repercussions in the U.S.
China's trade with the U.S. is declining, while its trade with other countries, such as Mexico and Vietnam, is increasing, indicating a shift in economic partnerships.
The risk of 'decoupling' between the U.S. and China highlights the need for high-level diplomacy to navigate economic challenges and foster cooperation.
Trump's administration may adopt a more cautious approach to tariffs and sanctions against China, focusing instead on maintaining economic stability in the U.S.
Increased cooperation between China and European countries may emerge as a response to U.S. tariff policies, reshaping global trade dynamics.
The potential for economic separation between the U.S. and China could lead to a reevaluation of international alliances and trade agreements.
China Anticipates Trump's Second Term: Economic and Political Implications
As Donald Trump prepares for his second term as U.S. President, the focus turns to the future of U.S.-China relations, which experienced significant volatility during his first term. Analysts suggest that Trump's approach to China will likely mirror past strategies, emphasizing trade as a key tool for exerting pressure on Beijing. Despite potential for heightened tensions, experts believe that Trump may hesitate to escalate sanctions beyond previous levels due to the adverse impact on the U.S. economy.
Trade Relations and Economic Pressures
Experts predict that Trump will implement similar practices to those seen during his first term, including trade barriers and technology restrictions. Ding Jun, a professor of international relations, notes that increased supply chain pressures will complicate American companies' ability to find low-cost suppliers, potentially driving up production costs and inflation. While Trump's campaign rhetoric included proposals for substantial tariffs on Chinese goods, the reality of trade dynamics suggests a more cautious approach may prevail.
Risk of Economic Separation
The potential for a significant decline in trade relations looms, as highlighted by Lian Ping from the China Senior Economists Forum. He warns that without shared interests, the risk of a 'decoupling' between the U.S. and China is plausible. Trump's foreign policy may lean towards isolationism, further complicating international cooperation on various fronts, including health and environmental issues. Thus, the next four years could see a narrowing of cooperative space unless diplomatic efforts are prioritized.
