AfD's Electoral Gains in Eastern Germany Signal Shifts in Political Landscape
The recent wave of local elections in Germany, particularly in the eastern states, highlighted a significant shift in the political landscape. The Alternative for Germany (AfD), a right-wing populist party, gained substantial ground, winning in Brandenburg, making significant inroads in Thuringia, and showing strong performance in Saxony.
AfD's Success in Brandenburg
In Brandenburg, the AfD emerged victorious in the local elections, securing 25.7 percent of the vote. This marked an increase of 9.8 percentage points compared to the previous local elections. The party's success was even more pronounced in the European elections held concurrently, garnering 27.5 percent of the vote. The Spree-Neiße district stood out, with the AfD achieving an impressive 38.2 percent.
The CDU trailed behind with 19.3 percent, while the SPD, the leading party of the traffic light coalition, managed 16.6 percent. The Greens and FDP saw minimal impact with 6.7 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively. The local elections hinted at potential challenges for the SPD, currently leading the state government under Dietmar Woidke, in the upcoming state elections.
Mixed Results in Thuringia and Saxony
Thuringia witnessed a mixed performance for the AfD. While the party led in the European elections with 30.7 percent, it fell short in the local election runoffs, secured no district administrator positions, and was second overall with 25.8 percent. The city's former GDR district capital, Gera, emerged as a stronghold with 35.1 percent.
In contrast, the CDU retained a firm grip, winning seven districts, including the independent cities of Erfurt and Gera. The SPD managed three districts, with the FDP clinching the independent city of Jena.
Saxony's local election results were still unfolding, but preliminary results indicated a favorable outcome for the AfD, particularly in districts like Bautzen and Görlitz, with over 35 percent of the vote. Chemnitz also saw the AfD replacing the CDU as the strongest faction in the city council.
Regional Impacts and Future Prospects
The AfD's recent victories in these eastern states, alongside their strong performance in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Saxony-Anhalt, underscore their growing influence. Political analysts like Werner Weidenfeld of LMU Munich observe that the AfD is transforming from a radical fringe group to a major party. Despite recent scandals involving top candidates, the party has maintained a solid core electorate, particularly in eastern Germany.
AfD leader Tino Chrupalla viewed these results as a 'tailwind' for the party, while other politicians, including Saxony's CDU Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer, emphasized the need for a stable democracy to counter the rise of populism.
- An important trend emerging from the elections is the underperformance of traditional parties like the SPD, Greens, and FDP in eastern states. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD saw itself surpassed by the newly formed left-wing populist Sarah Wagenknecht (BSW) in the European elections with 13.1 percent, ahead of SPD’s 11.4 percent.
- The greens also saw a significant decline, dropping to 6.4 percent compared to previous elections. In the broader context of former DDR regions, these results might signal a shifting allegiance among voters towards populist alternatives.
