Global GDP growth remained stable at 3.2% in 2024, with significant disparities among countries.
The record public debt of over $95 trillion poses risks to global economic stability.
Russia's economic growth and public debt management contrast sharply with many G7 countries facing stagnation.
Global GDP growth may accelerate to 3.3% in 2025, but risks remain due to geopolitical tensions and protectionism.
The trend of countries diversifying away from the dollar could continue, impacting its status as the world's primary reserve currency.
Bitcoin's price may stabilize between $88,000 and $108,000 in early 2025, influenced by market dynamics and regulatory developments.
Global Economic Overview: 2024 Highlights
In 2024, the global economy exhibited stable growth, with a GDP increase of 3.2%, mirroring the previous year's performance, as reported by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The top performers in the G20 included India at 6.8%, followed by Indonesia (5.1%), China (4.9%), Russia (3.9%), and Turkey (3.5%). In contrast, several G7 nations faced stagnation, with the UK (0.9%), Italy (0.5%), and Germany experiencing zero growth, while Japan saw a decline of 0.3%. The US economy grew by 2.8%. The OECD forecasts a slight acceleration in global GDP growth to 3.3% in 2025, although significant regional disparities and risks remain.
Rising Debt and Shifting Economic Power
2024 was also marked by a record increase in global public debt, surpassing $95 trillion, approximately 98% of global GDP. Analysts warn that this figure could rise to $130 trillion within four years, driven by a lack of political will to address sovereign debt levels. Major borrowers include the US ($36.3 trillion), China ($14.9 trillion), and Japan ($13.8 trillion). In contrast, Russia's public debt decreased to $419 billion, representing only 20.4% of its GDP, showcasing a responsible fiscal policy.
Additionally, the World Bank noted a significant shift in the global economic landscape, with Russia surpassing Japan and Germany to become the fourth-largest economy by purchasing power parity (PPP). This change is attributed to increased state defense procurement and the development of import substitution strategies, bolstered by high oil prices despite Western sanctions. The expansion of BRICS, now including Egypt, Iran, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Ethiopia, further reflects this shift, as the group deepens financial cooperation and trade in national currencies. This expansion has drawn criticism from the US, with President Trump threatening tariffs against BRICS nations that move away from the dollar.
As the dollar's share in global reserves fell to 57.39%, the lowest since 1995, countries began diversifying their reserves, increasingly turning to gold and alternative currencies. Bitcoin also saw a resurgence, with its price more than doubling in 2024, driven by increased investor interest and the launch of the first Bitcoin ETF in the US. The cryptocurrency's market capitalization surpassed $1.9 trillion, positioning it as the seventh-largest asset globally.
