The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)'s annual report on global armaments highlights a significant increase in the number and types of nuclear warheads worldwide. Despite not publicly admitting to its nuclear arsenal, Israel is believed to possess 90 nuclear warheads, making it the eighth-largest nuclear power, just ahead of North Korea's 50 warheads. SIPRI's assessment indicates that Israel is actively working to modernize its arsenal and develop plutonium at its Dimona nuclear reactor in the Negev desert.
Russia and the United States remain the top two nuclear powers, with 4,380 and 3,708 nuclear warheads, respectively, according to the report. Following these, China is rapidly expanding its arsenal, which grew from 410 warheads in January 2023 to 500 by January 2024. This rapid growth could enable China to rival the United States or Russia in terms of intercontinental ballistic missiles by the decade's end.
SIPRI reports that as of January 2024, the nine nuclear-armed nations - the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel - possess a total of 12,121 nuclear warheads. Of these, 9,585 are ready for use, with 3,904 mounted on aircraft and missiles. A significant number of these warheads are on high alert, primarily owned by the U.S. and Russia, but for the first time, some Chinese warheads have also been placed on high alert during peacetime.
The global nuclear landscape is witnessing a shift as countries such as China expedite their nuclear development initiatives. SIPRI's Hans Christensen emphasizes that almost all nuclear nations have plans either to increase their nuclear capacity or are actively implementing such plans. This surge in nuclear armament is the most significant since the Cold War, underscoring the growing reliance on nuclear deterrence in international relations.
Wilfred Wan, director of SIPRI's Weapons of Mass Destruction Research Program, highlights the paradoxical nature of today's nuclear politics. Despite major nuclear powers stating just two years ago that a nuclear war cannot be won and should never be fought, they are now enhancing their nuclear arsenals, suggesting a challenging path ahead for global disarmament and security.
- China's expansion of its nuclear arsenal has been particularly rapid, with significant advancements in its missile technology. The display of DF-41 missiles in Tiananmen Square, Beijing, underscores China's commitment to strengthening its nuclear capabilities.
- India is also modernizing its arsenal, with notable developments such as the Agni-5 ballistic missile, which enhances its strategic military capacity. This modernization trend is expected to continue among other nuclear-armed nations as well.
- Despite the pledges by leaders of the five largest nuclear powers that a nuclear war cannot be won and should never be fought, the increasing investment in nuclear weapons indicates a contradictory stance in their policies, potentially destabilizing global peace efforts.
